The S&P 500 Hasn't Done This in 14 Years

<p>The S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) is up about 20% over the past 52 weeks, but it has not seen an all-time high since the first trading day of 2022. That&rsquo;s 443 trading days without a new high. Since the Great Depression, there have only been seven other streaks of this length. Let&rsquo;s look at these prior streaks to see if we can learn anything about what might happen next.</p>
<h2>It’s Been…443 Trading Days</h2>
<p>The table below shows the eight times since the Great Depression that the S&amp;P 500 has gone this many trading days without a new all-time high. During the current streak, the S&amp;P 500 was down 25% at its lowest point since the recent all-time high, which was reached about a year ago (248 trading days). This 25% drawdown is relatively mild compared to the drawdowns during the other streaks. Only the 1958 streak had a smaller drawdown.</p>
<p>The last column of the table shows how many more months, after the 443 trading days, it took for the S&amp;P 500 to make a new all-time high. The average is 29 months with the median being 18 months. However, if we look at the three instances when the S&amp;P 500 was within 20% of the last high, it took about two months to reach an all-time high in two cases, and less than five months in the other case.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://schaeffers-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/images/default-source/schaeffers-cdn-images/2023/october/iotw/spx-all-time-highs.jpg?sfvrsn=e0afa806_2" data-displaymode="Original" alt="SPX All-Time Highs" title="SPX All-Time Highs" style="vertical-align: middle;" /></p>
<p>The table below suggests buying pressure has built up for stocks. After 443 days without an all-time high, the S&amp;P 500 gained on average over 14% over the next six months, with six of seven returns positive. A year later, the index gained 17% on average with five of seven returns of 20% or more. It&rsquo;s only seven data points, but after these streaks, the S&amp;P 500 outperforms its typical returns at all the timeframes shown.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://schaeffers-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/images/default-source/schaeffers-cdn-images/2023/october/iotw/spx-returns.jpg?sfvrsn=e4afa806_2" data-displaymode="Original" alt="SPX Returns" title="SPX Returns" style="vertical-align: middle;" /></p>
<p>Finally, I have a chart showing the S&amp;P 500 returns after the all-time highs that led to these 443-day streaks. The thick black line is the current streak, and I have the last few streaks designated with colors. Based on everything here, it&rsquo;s not unreasonable to be hopeful that the next new high is coming, and soon.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://schaeffers-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/images/default-source/schaeffers-cdn-images/2023/october/iotw/spx-days-since-high.jpg?sfvrsn=9cafa806_2" data-displaymode="Original" alt="SPX Days Since High" title="SPX Days Since High" style="vertical-align: middle;" /></p>

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