As the holiday season comes to a head and Wall Street tapers off from its post-election buzz, there are few noteworthy themes left to carry us through the remaining weeks of trading. However, on the day of this writing it’s Friday the 13th, a date that inspires superstition for some, so I thought it’d be interesting to look at how the S&P 500 Index (SPX) tends to perform on the day of and after the rare, fear-inducing weekday.
For reference, there were just two Fridays in 2024 that fell on the 13th day of the month, in September and December. There were also only two occurrences of Friday the 13th in 2023: January and October. While the occasion is rare, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White was able to pull several bouts of historical data that give us a better idea of what to expect in the coming weeks.
The first group of tables shows daily data. The next group shows weekly data (week after Friday the 13th vs. other weeks), and the last group of tables shows months with Friday the 13th and without.
Let’s start off with SPX data comparing Friday the 13th to other days. There have been 75 Fridays on the 13th day of the month since 1980, and 41 since 2000. The date has been bullish and more volatile (as measured by standard deviation of returns) compared to other days. Going back to both 1980 and 2000, Friday the 13th sees significantly higher average returns compared to other days.
Below is data for the week following Friday the 13th. Since the year 2000, the week after Friday the 13th has been bearish, while the percentage of positive returns is about the same. However, it is worth noting that the standard deviation of returns the week after Friday the 13th is higher than other weeks.
Just for fun, let’s also look at the one-month progression of this data. The below tables are showing SPX returns for months that include a Friday the 13th vs. months that don’t. Since 2010, there’s been some outperformance in months that include the date. Months that host a Friday the 13th tend to outperform the other months, especially in returns since 1980 and 2010, which saw an average return of 1.14% and 1.24%, respectively.
With the closeout of another record-breaking year on Wall Street hovering near, the data above suggests we could see more outperformance into the New Year, if history is any indication. As always, move with caution, but it turns out the “unluckiest” days of the year often precede a lucky period for options traders.